Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
