Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
